Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Noah vs Pyunik Yerevan — Premier League 2019

FC Noah
FC Noah
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
8/20/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

FC Noah40%
×Draw25%
Pyunik Yerevan35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Noah
1.45
Pyunik Yerevan
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 107 away

creates per match

FC Noah
2.04
Pyunik Yerevan
1.75

allows per match

FC Noah
0.94
Pyunik Yerevan
0.85

finishing

FC Noah+0.00on par
Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Noah ↓

Pyunik Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Noah or draw
65%
FC Noah or Pyunik Yerevan
75%
Draw or Pyunik Yerevan
60%

Winning margin

FC Noah wins by 2+
19%
Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Noah 1+ goals
77%
FC Noah 2+ goals
42%
FC Noah 3+ goals
18%
Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
74%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
39%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Noah (draw refunded)
53%
Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Noah at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.94 · 109 matches

Pyunik Yerevan away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Noah attack 2.04 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.45

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.75 + FC Noah defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Noah scores more
40%
level
25%
Pyunik Yerevan scores more
35%

FC Noah at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Noah 1–2 Pyunik Yerevan

Pyunik Yerevan beat FC Noah 2-1 in Premier League on August 20, 2021.

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.