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FC Noah vs FC Urartu — Premier League 2019

FC Noah
FC Noah
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
8/20/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Armavir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

FC Noah44%
×Draw25%
FC Urartu30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Noah
1.52
FC Urartu
1.21

FC Noah creates 26% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 105 away

creates per match

FC Noah
2.04
FC Urartu
1.49

allows per match

FC Noah
0.94
FC Urartu
1.01

finishing

FC Noah+0.00on par
FC Urartu+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Noah ↓

FC Urartu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Noah or draw
70%
FC Noah or FC Urartu
75%
Draw or FC Urartu
56%

Winning margin

FC Noah wins by 2+
22%
FC Urartu wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Noah 1+ goals
78%
FC Noah 2+ goals
45%
FC Noah 3+ goals
20%
FC Urartu 1+ goals
70%
FC Urartu 2+ goals
34%
FC Urartu 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Noah (draw refunded)
59%
FC Urartu (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Noah at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.94 · 109 matches

FC Urartu away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Noah attack 2.04 + FC Urartu defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Urartu attack 1.49 + FC Noah defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Noah scores more
44%
level
25%
FC Urartu scores more
30%

FC Noah at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Noah vs FC Urartu

FC Urartu beat FC Noah 6-0 in Premier League on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Armavir Stadium in Armavir.