FC Noah 1–0 Ararat-Armenia: Result & Stats

FC Noah

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ararat-Armenia

11/7/2023

Premier League · Round 16Kotaik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

FC Noah40%

×Draw26%

Ararat-Armenia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NoahExpected goals in this matchArarat-Armenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.30

FC Noah

1.42

Ararat-Armenia

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 107 away

2.04

creates per match

1.67

0.94

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

FC Noah

2.04

Ararat-Armenia

1.67

allows per match

FC Noah

0.94

Ararat-Armenia

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Noah+0.00on par

Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Noah ↓

Ararat-Armenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FC Noah or draw

66%

FC Noah or Ararat-Armenia

74%

Draw or Ararat-Armenia

60%

Winning margin

FC Noah wins by 2+

19%

Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Noah 1+ goals

76%

FC Noah 2+ goals

41%

FC Noah 3+ goals

17%

Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals

73%

Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals

37%

Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Noah (draw refunded)

54%

Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Noah at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.94 · 109 matches

Ararat-Armenia away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Noah attack 2.04 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ararat-Armenia attack 1.67 + FC Noah defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Noah scores more

40%

level

26%

Ararat-Armenia scores more

34%

FC Noah at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff