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FC Noah vs Ararat — Premier League 2019

FC Noah
FC Noah
Preview
15:00
Ararat
Ararat
8/28/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Abovyan City Stadium
Big match
56%
FC Noah
model favours
56%23%21%

FC Noah score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

FC Noah56%
×Draw23%
Ararat21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Noah
1.84
Ararat
1.04

FC Noah creates 77% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 107 away

creates per match

FC Noah
2.04
Ararat
1.14

allows per match

FC Noah
0.94
Ararat
1.64

finishing

FC Noah+0.00on par
Ararat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Noah ↓

Ararat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Noah or draw
79%
FC Noah or Ararat
77%
Draw or Ararat
44%

Winning margin

FC Noah wins by 2+
32%
Ararat wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Noah 1+ goals
84%
FC Noah 2+ goals
55%
FC Noah 3+ goals
28%
Ararat 1+ goals
65%
Ararat 2+ goals
28%
Ararat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Noah (draw refunded)
73%
Ararat (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Noah at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.94 · 109 matches

Ararat away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Noah attack 2.04 + Ararat defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.84

Ararat attack 1.14 + FC Noah defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC Noah scores more
56%
level
23%
Ararat scores more
21%

FC Noah at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Noah have won 9 of the last 10 meetings
  • Ararat win just 18% against the top half (vs 51% against the bottom)
  • 28% of FC Noah’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.9 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Noah
DDWLW
Ararat
DDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Noah vs Ararat — Match Preview

FC Noah face Ararat on August 28, 2026 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC Noah host Ararat at Abovyan City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.