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FC Minsk vs FC Isloch Minsk R. — Premier League 2018

FC Minsk
FC Minsk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Isloch Minsk R.
12/2/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Stadion FK Minsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

FC Minsk38%
×Draw25%
FC Isloch Minsk R.37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Minsk
1.40
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 127 away

creates per match

FC Minsk
1.43
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.31

allows per match

FC Minsk
1.43
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.38

finishing

FC Minsk+0.00on par
FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Minsk ↓

FC Isloch Minsk R. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Minsk or draw
63%
FC Minsk or FC Isloch Minsk R.
75%
Draw or FC Isloch Minsk R.
62%

Winning margin

FC Minsk wins by 2+
18%
FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Minsk 1+ goals
75%
FC Minsk 2+ goals
41%
FC Minsk 3+ goals
17%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals
75%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals
40%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Minsk (draw refunded)
51%
FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Minsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

FC Isloch Minsk R. away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Minsk attack 1.43 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 1.31 + FC Minsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Minsk scores more
38%
level
25%
FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more
37%

FC Minsk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Minsk 2–1 FC Isloch Minsk R.

FC Minsk beat FC Isloch Minsk R. 2-1 in Premier League on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Minsk in Minsk.