FC Midtjylland 2–0 FC Nordsjaelland: Result & Stats

FC Midtjylland

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Nordsjaelland

11/12/2023

Superliga · Round 15MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

FC Midtjylland54%

×Draw22%

FC Nordsjaelland24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MidtjyllandExpected goals in this matchFC Nordsjaelland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.20

FC Midtjylland

1.90

FC Nordsjaelland

1.20

FC Midtjylland creates 58% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 132 away

2.12

creates per match

1.33

1.07

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

FC Midtjylland

2.12

FC Nordsjaelland

1.33

allows per match

FC Midtjylland

1.07

FC Nordsjaelland

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.00on par

FC Nordsjaelland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

FC Nordsjaelland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw

76%

FC Midtjylland or FC Nordsjaelland

78%

Draw or FC Nordsjaelland

46%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

31%

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

85%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

56%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

29%

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals

70%

FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals

34%

FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

69%

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.07 · 132 matches

FC Nordsjaelland away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 2.12 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.90

FC Nordsjaelland attack 1.33 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more

54%

level

22%

FC Nordsjaelland scores more

24%

FC Midtjylland at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff