FC Midtjylland 2–0 FC Nordsjaelland: Result & Stats

FC Midtjylland

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Nordsjaelland

V. Lind 77'

G. Isaksen 47'

9/10/2021

Superliga · Round 8MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

FC Midtjylland45%

×Draw24%

FC Nordsjaelland31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MidtjyllandExpected goals in this matchFC Nordsjaelland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.35

FC Midtjylland

1.69

FC Nordsjaelland

1.35

FC Midtjylland creates 25% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

1.76

creates per match

1.42

1.28

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

FC Midtjylland

1.76

FC Nordsjaelland

1.42

allows per match

FC Midtjylland

1.28

FC Nordsjaelland

1.62

+0.59scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.59scores more

FC Nordsjaelland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

FC Nordsjaelland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw

69%

FC Midtjylland or FC Nordsjaelland

76%

Draw or FC Nordsjaelland

55%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

24%

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

82%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

50%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

24%

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals

74%

FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals

39%

FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

60%

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.28 · 20 matches

FC Nordsjaelland away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 1.76 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.69

FC Nordsjaelland attack 1.42 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more

45%

level

24%

FC Nordsjaelland scores more

31%

FC Midtjylland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

E. Ólafsson

FC Midtjylland · G

8.2

Match Events

15'

Mohammed Diomande

47'

G. Isaksen↳ Júnior Brumado

63'

Dion-Johan Cools← N. Dyhr

64'

J. Cajuste← Júnior Brumado

68'

O. Villadsen← M. Frese

69'

J. Christensen← M. Kofod Andersen

72'

V. Lind← G. Isaksen

77'

V. Lind↳ E. Ólafsson

78'

M. Woledzi← K. Hansen

78'

D. Svensson← M. Diomandé

79'

O. Antman← A. Schjelderup

85'

A. Mabil← P. Sisto

87'

Abu Francis

89'

Erik Sviatchenko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

41%Possession59%

14Total Shots11

2Corners4

11Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots11

7On Target5

6Off Target4

1Blocked2

7Inside Box8

7Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

358Total Passes516

262Accurate Passes417

73%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4