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FC Luzern vs St. Truiden — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Luzern
FC Luzern
Preview
12:30
St. Truiden
St. Truiden
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
54%
St. Truiden
model favours
26%20%54%

St. Truiden score first in only 16% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
75%
over 2.5 goals
72%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FC Luzern26%
×Draw20%
St. Truiden54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Luzern
1.59
St. Truiden
2.36

St. Truiden creates 48% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Luzern
2.00
St. Truiden
2.65

allows per match

FC Luzern
2.07
St. Truiden
1.18

finishing

FC Luzern+0.00on par
St. Truiden+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Luzern ↓

St. Truiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

FC Luzern or draw
46%
FC Luzern or St. Truiden
80%
Draw or St. Truiden
74%

Winning margin

FC Luzern wins by 2+
12%
St. Truiden wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

FC Luzern 1+ goals
80%
FC Luzern 2+ goals
47%
FC Luzern 3+ goals
21%
St. Truiden 1+ goals
90%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
68%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

FC Luzern (draw refunded)
32%
St. Truiden (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Luzern at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

St. Truiden away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Luzern attack 2.00 + St. Truiden defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

St. Truiden attack 2.65 + FC Luzern defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Luzern scores more
26%
level
20%
St. Truiden scores more
54%

St. Truiden at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • St. Truiden have won 4 in a row
  • 30% of St. Truiden’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • FC Luzern and St. Truiden have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Luzern
WWWWW
Truiden
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Luzern host St. Truiden

July 18, 2026: FC Luzern take on St. Truiden in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.