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FC Luzern vs FC Winterthur — Super League 2018

FC Luzern
FC Luzern
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
11/25/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15swissporarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

FC Luzern53%
×Draw22%
FC Winterthur25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Luzern
2.00
FC Winterthur
1.31

FC Luzern creates 53% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 75 away

creates per match

FC Luzern
1.69
FC Winterthur
1.17

allows per match

FC Luzern
1.46
FC Winterthur
2.31

finishing

FC Luzern+0.00on par
FC Winterthur+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Luzern ↓

FC Winterthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FC Luzern or draw
75%
FC Luzern or FC Winterthur
78%
Draw or FC Winterthur
47%

Winning margin

FC Luzern wins by 2+
31%
FC Winterthur wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Luzern 1+ goals
86%
FC Luzern 2+ goals
59%
FC Luzern 3+ goals
32%
FC Winterthur 1+ goals
73%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
38%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Luzern (draw refunded)
68%
FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Luzern at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.46 · 148 matches

FC Winterthur away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.31 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Luzern attack 1.69 + FC Winterthur defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.00

FC Winterthur attack 1.17 + FC Luzern defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Luzern scores more
53%
level
22%
FC Winterthur scores more
25%

FC Luzern at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Luzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FC Luzern 3–1 FC Winterthur

FC Luzern beat FC Winterthur 3-1 in Super League on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at swissporarena in Luzern.