FC Lugano 1–3 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

FC Lugano

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

FC Basel 1893

12/6/2023

Super League · Round 5Stadio Comunale di Cornaredo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Lugano46%

×Draw24%

FC Basel 189329%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LuganoExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.26

FC Lugano

1.65

FC Basel 1893

1.26

FC Lugano creates 31% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.82

creates per match

1.46

1.06

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

FC Lugano

1.82

FC Basel 1893

1.46

allows per match

FC Lugano

1.06

FC Basel 1893

1.47

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

FC Lugano+0.18scores more

FC Basel 1893-0.06on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lugano ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Lugano or draw

71%

FC Lugano or FC Basel 1893

76%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

54%

Winning margin

FC Lugano wins by 2+

24%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Lugano 1+ goals

81%

FC Lugano 2+ goals

49%

FC Lugano 3+ goals

23%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

72%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

36%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Lugano (draw refunded)

61%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lugano at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 6 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.47 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lugano attack 1.82 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.65

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.46 + FC Lugano defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Lugano scores more

46%

level

24%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

29%

FC Lugano at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Lugano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff