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FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys — Super League 2018

FC Lugano
FC Lugano
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
2/10/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Stadio Comunale di Cornaredo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Lugano55%
×Draw23%
BSC Young Boys23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lugano
1.84
BSC Young Boys
1.10

FC Lugano creates 67% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC Lugano
1.82
BSC Young Boys
1.15

allows per match

FC Lugano
1.06
BSC Young Boys
1.86

finishing

FC Lugano+0.18scores more
BSC Young Boys+0.60scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lugano ↓

BSC Young Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Lugano or draw
77%
FC Lugano or BSC Young Boys
77%
Draw or BSC Young Boys
45%

Winning margin

FC Lugano wins by 2+
31%
BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Lugano 1+ goals
84%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
55%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
28%
BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
67%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
30%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Lugano (draw refunded)
71%
BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lugano at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 6 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.86 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lugano attack 1.82 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.84

BSC Young Boys attack 1.15 + FC Lugano defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Lugano scores more
55%
level
23%
BSC Young Boys scores more
23%

FC Lugano at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Lugano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FC Lugano 3–3 BSC Young Boys

FC Lugano and BSC Young Boys drew 3-3 in Super League on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Cornaredo in Lugano.