FC Lugano 2–1 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

FC Lugano

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

BSC Young Boys

M. Amoura 81'

Ž. Celar 21'

F. Rieder 89'

10/27/2021

Schweizer Cup · Round of 16Stadio di Cornaredo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Lugano30%

×Draw21%

BSC Young Boys50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LuganoExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

2.22

FC Lugano

1.69

BSC Young Boys

2.22

BSC Young Boys creates 31% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 22 away

2.33

creates per match

3.77

0.67

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

FC Lugano

2.33

BSC Young Boys

3.77

allows per match

FC Lugano

0.67

BSC Young Boys

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Lugano+0.00on par

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lugano ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

FC Lugano or draw

50%

FC Lugano or BSC Young Boys

79%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

70%

Winning margin

FC Lugano wins by 2+

14%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

FC Lugano 1+ goals

82%

FC Lugano 2+ goals

50%

FC Lugano 3+ goals

24%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

89%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

65%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

FC Lugano (draw refunded)

37%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lugano at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 3.77, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lugano attack 2.33 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.69

BSC Young Boys attack 3.77 + FC Lugano defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Lugano scores more

30%

level

21%

BSC Young Boys scores more

50%

BSC Young Boys at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

A. Laidani← D. von Ballmoos

21'

Ž. Celar

45+2'

J. Siebatcheu← W. Kanga

46'

C. Fassnacht← F. Mambimbi

46'

M. Aebischer← C. Martins

48'

N. Moumi Ngamaleu

50'

N. Lavanchy

57'

V. Sierro

57'

Asumah Abubakar← M. Bottani

58'

Q. Maceiras

71'

Yuri← C. Lungoyi

72'

73'

81'

81'

84'

89'

FC

BSC

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Celar

▼

Lungoyi

Manager: M. Croci-Torti

57'▲Asumah Abubakar←▼M. Bottani

71'▲Yuri←▼C. Lungoyi

72'▲M. Amoura←▼Ž. Celar

FC Lugano substitutes

AbubakarYuriAmouraDaprelàMahmoudMonzialoSrdicMuciBaumann

Manager: D. Wagner

13'▲A. Laidani←▼D. von Ballmoos

45+2'▲J. Siebatcheu←▼W. Kanga

46'▲C. Fassnacht←▼F. Mambimbi

46'▲M. Aebischer←▼C. Martins

73'▲F. Rieder←▼V. Sierro

BSC Young Boys substitutes

LaidaniSiebatcheuFassnachtAebischerRiederJankewitzSulejmaniBürgyGarcia