FC Lugano 1–3 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

FC Lugano

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

BSC Young Boys

A. Gerndt 59'

S. Lauper 45+1'

M. Elia 17'

J. Nsame 10' (pen)

2/14/2021

Super League · Round 20Stadio di Cornaredo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

FC Lugano46%

×Draw25%

BSC Young Boys29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LuganoExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.18

FC Lugano

1.55

BSC Young Boys

1.18

FC Lugano creates 31% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

1.52

creates per match

1.27

1.08

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

FC Lugano

1.52

BSC Young Boys

1.27

allows per match

FC Lugano

1.08

BSC Young Boys

1.58

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

FC Lugano+0.38scores more

BSC Young Boys+0.35scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lugano ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FC Lugano or draw

71%

FC Lugano or BSC Young Boys

75%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

54%

Winning margin

FC Lugano wins by 2+

23%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Lugano 1+ goals

79%

FC Lugano 2+ goals

46%

FC Lugano 3+ goals

20%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

69%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

33%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Lugano (draw refunded)

61%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lugano at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.08 · 10 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.58 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lugano attack 1.52 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.55

BSC Young Boys attack 1.27 + FC Lugano defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Lugano scores more

46%

level

25%

BSC Young Boys scores more

29%

FC Lugano at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Lugano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Nsame

BSC Young Boys · F

8.2

Match Events

10'

J. NsamePenalty

17'

M. Elia↳ J. Nsame

45+1'

S. Lauper↳ J. Lefort

46'

C. Lungoyi← Á. Kecskés

46'

A. Gerndt← J. Sabbatini

46'

M. Camara← F. Lustenberger

59'

A. Gerndt

64'

M. Čovilo← O. Custodio

67'

M. Sulejmani← C. Fassnacht

68'

T. Siebatcheu← M. Ngamaleu

69'

S. Guidotti← S. Lovric

71'

71'

76'

78'

78'

90'

Q. Maceiras← S. Hefti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCBSC

Overview

48%Possession52%

10Total Shots17

2Corners4

8Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots17

5On Target9

3Off Target5

2Blocked3

5Inside Box10

5Outside Box7

Passing

48%Possession52%

462Total Passes478

358Accurate Passes371

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3