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FC Levante Badalona W vs Madrid CFF W — Primera División Femenina 2018

FC Levante Badalona W
FC Levante Badalona W
Preview
15:00
Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
4/11/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 26Estadi Municipal de Badalona
Big match
40%
FC Levante Badalona W
model favours
40%24%36%
1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

FC Levante Badalona W40%
×Draw24%
Madrid CFF W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Levante Badalona W
1.57
Madrid CFF W
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 119 away

creates per match

FC Levante Badalona W
1.02
Madrid CFF W
1.44

allows per match

FC Levante Badalona W
1.55
Madrid CFF W
2.13

finishing

FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par
Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Levante Badalona W ↓

Madrid CFF W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Levante Badalona W or draw
64%
FC Levante Badalona W or Madrid CFF W
76%
Draw or Madrid CFF W
60%

Winning margin

FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+
19%
Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals
79%
FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals
46%
FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals
21%
Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
78%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
44%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)
52%
Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Levante Badalona W at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.55 · 60 matches

Madrid CFF W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Levante Badalona W attack 1.02 + Madrid CFF W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.57

Madrid CFF W attack 1.44 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Levante Badalona W scores more
40%
level
24%
Madrid CFF W scores more
36%

FC Levante Badalona W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Levante Badalona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
FC Levante Badalona W
Balanced
Madrid CFF W
Possession-dominant
47%Possession55%
71%Pass accuracy77%
10.9ShotsBiggest gap13.8
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FC Levante Badalona WMadrid CFF W

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

4
FC Levante Badalona W
1
Draws
3
Madrid CFF W
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 63%
1–01–02–11–01–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WLDLL
W
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Levante Badalona W host Madrid CFF W

April 11, 2027: FC Levante Badalona W take on Madrid CFF W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Levante Badalona W host Madrid CFF W at Estadi Municipal de Badalona.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.