FC Levante Badalona W 3–4 Madrid CFF W

FC Levante Badalona W

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Madrid CFF W

A. Lahmari 69'

M. Nicoli 45+3', 30'

Mônica 67' (pen), 45+5'

Luany 33'

R. Kundananji 28'

11/26/2023

Primera División Femenina · Round 10Camp Municipal Les Planes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

FC Levante Badalona W40%

×Draw24%

Madrid CFF W36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Levante Badalona WExpected goals in this matchMadrid CFF W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.50

FC Levante Badalona W

1.57

Madrid CFF W

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 119 away

1.02

creates per match

1.44

1.55

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

FC Levante Badalona W

1.02

Madrid CFF W

1.44

allows per match

FC Levante Badalona W

1.55

Madrid CFF W

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par

Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Levante Badalona W ↓

Madrid CFF W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Levante Badalona W or draw

64%

FC Levante Badalona W or Madrid CFF W

76%

Draw or Madrid CFF W

60%

Winning margin

FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+

19%

Madrid CFF W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals

79%

FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals

46%

FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals

21%

Madrid CFF W 1+ goals

78%

Madrid CFF W 2+ goals

44%

Madrid CFF W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)

52%

Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Levante Badalona W at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.55 · 60 matches

Madrid CFF W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Levante Badalona W attack 1.02 + Madrid CFF W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.57

Madrid CFF W attack 1.44 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Levante Badalona W scores more

40%

level

24%

Madrid CFF W scores more

36%

FC Levante Badalona W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Levante Badalona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Kundananji

Madrid CFF W · F

9.2

Match Events

17'

Bénédicte Simon

28'

R. Kundananji↳ Ana González

30'

M. Nicoli↳ Y. M'Rabet

33'

Luany

45+3'

M. Nicoli↳ Laura Martínez

45+5'

Mônica↳ K. Araya

46'

Tang Jiali← Cristina Baudet

46'

A. Lahmari← B. Simon

65'

Cristina Librán← K. Araya

66'

Anissa Lahmari

66'

Morgane Nicoli

67'

MônicaPenalty

69'

A. Lahmari↳ Y. M'Rabet

73'

D. Čonč← Y. MRabet

73'

Pilar Garrote← Laura Martínez

77'

Irina Uribe

78'

Itziar Pinillos← Laura Domínguez

78'

Esther Laborde← Sandra Villafañe

85'

88'

90+1'

90+1'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCMadrid

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots11

6Corners6

11Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots11

7On Target4

2Off Target6

2Blocked1

8Inside Box6

3Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

420Total Passes443

279Accurate Passes315

66%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls13

5Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0