FC Levadia Tallinn 0–0 Vaprus: Result & Stats

FC Levadia Tallinn

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vaprus

11/1/2023

Meistriliiga · Round 34A. Le Coq Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

FC Levadia Tallinn65%

×Draw20%

Vaprus15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Levadia TallinnExpected goals in this matchVaprus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.93

FC Levadia Tallinn

2.15

Vaprus

0.93

FC Levadia Tallinn creates 131% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 96 away

2.46

creates per match

1.03

0.83

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

FC Levadia Tallinn

2.46

Vaprus

1.03

allows per match

FC Levadia Tallinn

0.83

Vaprus

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Levadia Tallinn+0.00on par

Vaprus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Levadia Tallinn ↓

Vaprus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Levadia Tallinn or draw

85%

FC Levadia Tallinn or Vaprus

80%

Draw or Vaprus

35%

Winning margin

FC Levadia Tallinn wins by 2+

41%

Vaprus wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FC Levadia Tallinn 1+ goals

88%

FC Levadia Tallinn 2+ goals

63%

FC Levadia Tallinn 3+ goals

36%

Vaprus 1+ goals

61%

Vaprus 2+ goals

24%

Vaprus 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FC Levadia Tallinn (draw refunded)

81%

Vaprus (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Levadia Tallinn at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.83 · 131 matches

Vaprus away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.83 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Levadia Tallinn attack 2.46 + Vaprus defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.15

Vaprus attack 1.03 + FC Levadia Tallinn defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

FC Levadia Tallinn scores more

65%

level

20%

Vaprus scores more

15%

FC Levadia Tallinn at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "FC Levadia Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff