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FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka — Cup 2020

FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinnadvanced
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Tammeka
Tammeka
11/24/2023CupCup · Round of 16Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Levadia Tallinn27%
×Draw16%
Tammeka57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Levadia Tallinn
2.52
Tammeka
3.62

Tammeka creates 44% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC Levadia Tallinn
3.92
Tammeka
6.73

allows per match

FC Levadia Tallinn
0.50
Tammeka
1.13

finishing

FC Levadia Tallinn+0.00on par
Tammeka+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Levadia Tallinn ↓

Tammeka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–24%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–35%
3–45%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–23%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
71%29%

Double chance

FC Levadia Tallinn or draw
43%
FC Levadia Tallinn or Tammeka
84%
Draw or Tammeka
73%

Winning margin

FC Levadia Tallinn wins by 2+
14%
Tammeka wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

FC Levadia Tallinn 1+ goals
92%
FC Levadia Tallinn 2+ goals
71%
FC Levadia Tallinn 3+ goals
45%
Tammeka 1+ goals
97%
Tammeka 2+ goals
87%
Tammeka 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

FC Levadia Tallinn (draw refunded)
32%
Tammeka (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
87%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Levadia Tallinn at home — creates 3.92, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Tammeka away — creates 6.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Levadia Tallinn attack 3.92 + Tammeka defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 2.52

Tammeka attack 6.73 + FC Levadia Tallinn defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 3.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FC Levadia Tallinn scores more
27%
level
16%
Tammeka scores more
57%

Tammeka at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tammeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka

FC Levadia Tallinn beat Tammeka 4-2 in Cup on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.