FC Levadia Tallinn 2–1 Flora Tallinn

FC Levadia Tallinn

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Flora Tallinn

11/5/2023

Meistriliiga · Round 35A. Le Coq Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

FC Levadia Tallinn39%

×Draw23%

Flora Tallinn38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Levadia TallinnExpected goals in this matchFlora Tallinn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.61

FC Levadia Tallinn

1.65

Flora Tallinn

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 133 away

2.46

creates per match

2.39

0.83

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

FC Levadia Tallinn

2.46

Flora Tallinn

2.39

allows per match

FC Levadia Tallinn

0.83

Flora Tallinn

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Levadia Tallinn+0.00on par

Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Levadia Tallinn ↓

Flora Tallinn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FC Levadia Tallinn or draw

62%

FC Levadia Tallinn or Flora Tallinn

77%

Draw or Flora Tallinn

61%

Winning margin

FC Levadia Tallinn wins by 2+

20%

Flora Tallinn wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FC Levadia Tallinn 1+ goals

81%

FC Levadia Tallinn 2+ goals

49%

FC Levadia Tallinn 3+ goals

23%

Flora Tallinn 1+ goals

80%

Flora Tallinn 2+ goals

48%

Flora Tallinn 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

FC Levadia Tallinn (draw refunded)

51%

Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Levadia Tallinn at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.83 · 131 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 2.39, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Levadia Tallinn attack 2.46 + Flora Tallinn defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

Flora Tallinn attack 2.39 + FC Levadia Tallinn defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Levadia Tallinn scores more

39%

level

23%

Flora Tallinn scores more

38%

FC Levadia Tallinn at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Levadia Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff