FC Krasnodar vs Krylia Sovetov

FC Krasnodar

Preview

16:00

Krylia Sovetov

3/6/2027

Premier League · Round 19Ozon Arena

Big match

58%

FC Krasnodar

model favours

58%23%20%

When FC Krasnodar score first, they win 88% of the time

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

54%

over 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

FC Krasnodar58%

×Draw23%

Krylia Sovetov20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC KrasnodarExpected goals in this matchKrylia Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.98

FC Krasnodar

1.86

Krylia Sovetov

0.98

FC Krasnodar creates 90% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 105 away

1.92

creates per match

1.02

0.93

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

FC Krasnodar

1.92

Krylia Sovetov

1.02

allows per match

FC Krasnodar

0.93

Krylia Sovetov

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Krasnodar+0.00on par

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Krasnodar ↓

Krylia Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Krasnodar or draw

80%

FC Krasnodar or Krylia Sovetov

77%

Draw or Krylia Sovetov

42%

Winning margin

FC Krasnodar wins by 2+

34%

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FC Krasnodar 1+ goals

84%

FC Krasnodar 2+ goals

55%

FC Krasnodar 3+ goals

28%

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

62%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

26%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FC Krasnodar (draw refunded)

75%

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Krasnodar at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.93 · 120 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.81 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Krasnodar attack 1.92 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.86

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 + FC Krasnodar defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Krasnodar scores more

58%

level

23%

Krylia Sovetov scores more

20%

FC Krasnodar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Krylia Sovetov win just 17% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
25% of FC Krasnodar’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
34% of FC Krasnodar’s goals come after the 75th minute
Krylia Sovetov fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

FC Krasnodar

Possession-dominant

Krylia Sovetov

Balanced

59%Possession46%

80%Pass accuracy77%

15.4Shots10.8

1.87xGBiggest gap1.27

FC KrasnodarKrylia Sovetov

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

6

FC Krasnodar

3

Draws

1

Krylia Sovetov

Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 70%

5–02–16–01–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Krasnodar

DWDWL

Sovetov

LLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff