FC Krasnodar vs Dinamo Makhachkala

FC Krasnodar

Preview

15:00

Dinamo Makhachkala

4/24/2027

Premier League · Round 25Ozon Arena

Big match

60%

FC Krasnodar

model favours

60%24%16%

Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

57%

under 2.5 goals

42%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FC Krasnodar60%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Makhachkala16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC KrasnodarExpected goals in this matchDinamo Makhachkala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.73

FC Krasnodar

1.67

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.73

FC Krasnodar creates 129% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 31 away

1.92

creates per match

0.52

0.93

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

FC Krasnodar

1.92

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.52

allows per match

FC Krasnodar

0.93

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Krasnodar+0.00on par

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Krasnodar ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FC Krasnodar or draw

84%

FC Krasnodar or Dinamo Makhachkala

76%

Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala

40%

Winning margin

FC Krasnodar wins by 2+

33%

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FC Krasnodar 1+ goals

81%

FC Krasnodar 2+ goals

50%

FC Krasnodar 3+ goals

23%

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

52%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

17%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

FC Krasnodar (draw refunded)

79%

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Krasnodar at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.93 · 120 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Krasnodar attack 1.92 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.52 + FC Krasnodar defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FC Krasnodar scores more

60%

level

24%

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

16%

FC Krasnodar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FC Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

When FC Krasnodar score first, they win 88% of the time
FC Krasnodar have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
Style contrast — FC Krasnodar play Possession-dominant, Dinamo Makhachkala Direct / counter-attacking
25% of FC Krasnodar’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
FC Krasnodar sit 2, Dinamo Makhachkala 12 in the table
Dinamo Makhachkala fall short of their xG (0.4 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

FC Krasnodar

Possession-dominant

Dinamo Makhachkala

Direct / counter-attacking

59%Possession44%

80%Pass accuracy68%

15.4Shots10.6

1.87xGBiggest gap0.88

FC KrasnodarDinamo Makhachkala

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

4

FC Krasnodar

1

Draws

0

Dinamo Makhachkala

Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%

2–12–03–20–02–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Krasnodar

DWDWL

Makhachkala

WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff