Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Kaiserslautern vs FC Nurnberg — DFB Pokal 2018

FC Kaiserslautern
FC Kaiserslauternadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Nurnberg
FC Nurnberg
12/5/2023DFB PokalDFB Pokal · Round of 16Fritz-Walter-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Kaiserslautern20%
×Draw21%
FC Nurnberg58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Kaiserslautern
1.10
FC Nurnberg
2.02

FC Nurnberg creates 84% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

FC Kaiserslautern
1.43
FC Nurnberg
1.89

allows per match

FC Kaiserslautern
2.14
FC Nurnberg
0.78

finishing

FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par
FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Kaiserslautern ↓

FC Nurnberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Kaiserslautern or draw
42%
FC Kaiserslautern or FC Nurnberg
79%
Draw or FC Nurnberg
80%

Winning margin

FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+
7%
FC Nurnberg wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals
67%
FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals
30%
FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals
10%
FC Nurnberg 1+ goals
87%
FC Nurnberg 2+ goals
60%
FC Nurnberg 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)
26%
FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

FC Nurnberg away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.43 + FC Nurnberg defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.10

FC Nurnberg attack 1.89 + FC Kaiserslautern defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Kaiserslautern scores more
20%
level
21%
FC Nurnberg scores more
58%

FC Nurnberg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Nurnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Kaiserslautern vs FC Nurnberg

FC Kaiserslautern beat FC Nurnberg 2-0 in DFB Pokal on December 5, 2023.

The match was played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion in Kaiserslautern.