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FC jazz vs KaaPo — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

FC jazz
FC jazz
FT
1 – 0
KaaPo
KaaPo
9/22/2018Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 21Porin Stadion (Pori)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

FC jazz51%
×Draw21%
KaaPo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC jazz
2.08
KaaPo
1.50

FC jazz creates 39% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 53 away

creates per match

FC jazz
2.25
KaaPo
1.57

allows per match

FC jazz
1.44
KaaPo
1.91

finishing

FC jazz+0.00on par
KaaPo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC jazz ↓

KaaPo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

FC jazz or draw
72%
FC jazz or KaaPo
79%
Draw or KaaPo
49%

Winning margin

FC jazz wins by 2+
30%
KaaPo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC jazz 1+ goals
87%
FC jazz 2+ goals
61%
FC jazz 3+ goals
34%
KaaPo 1+ goals
78%
KaaPo 2+ goals
44%
KaaPo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC jazz (draw refunded)
65%
KaaPo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC jazz at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches

KaaPo away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.91 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC jazz attack 2.25 + KaaPo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.08

KaaPo attack 1.57 + FC jazz defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC jazz scores more
51%
level
21%
KaaPo scores more
28%

FC jazz at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC jazz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC jazz vs KaaPo

FC jazz beat KaaPo 1-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Porin Stadion (Pori).