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FC jazz vs Honka Akatemia — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

FC jazz
FC jazz
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Honka Akatemia
Honka Akatemia
5/10/2018Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 2Herralahti tekonurmi (Pori)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

FC jazz44%
×Draw23%
Honka Akatemia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC jazz
1.77
Honka Akatemia
1.50

FC jazz creates 18% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 56 away

creates per match

FC jazz
2.25
Honka Akatemia
1.57

allows per match

FC jazz
1.44
Honka Akatemia
1.30

finishing

FC jazz+0.00on par
Honka Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC jazz ↓

Honka Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC jazz or draw
67%
FC jazz or Honka Akatemia
77%
Draw or Honka Akatemia
56%

Winning margin

FC jazz wins by 2+
23%
Honka Akatemia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC jazz 1+ goals
83%
FC jazz 2+ goals
53%
FC jazz 3+ goals
26%
Honka Akatemia 1+ goals
78%
Honka Akatemia 2+ goals
44%
Honka Akatemia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC jazz (draw refunded)
57%
Honka Akatemia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC jazz at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches

Honka Akatemia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC jazz attack 2.25 + Honka Akatemia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.77

Honka Akatemia attack 1.57 + FC jazz defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC jazz scores more
44%
level
23%
Honka Akatemia scores more
33%

FC jazz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC jazz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC jazz vs Honka Akatemia

FC jazz beat Honka Akatemia 2-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on May 10, 2018.

The match was played at Herralahti tekonurmi (Pori).