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FC Inter Wanica vs Robin Hood — Eerste Divisie 2019

FC Inter Wanica
FC Inter Wanica
FT
0 – 10
Robin Hood
Robin Hood
6/10/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 20Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

FC Inter Wanica11%
×Draw15%
Robin Hood74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Inter Wanica
1.04
Robin Hood
2.86

Robin Hood creates 175% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 61 away

creates per match

FC Inter Wanica
1.19
Robin Hood
3.05

allows per match

FC Inter Wanica
2.67
Robin Hood
0.90

finishing

FC Inter Wanica+0.00on par
Robin Hood+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Inter Wanica ↓

Robin Hood →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

FC Inter Wanica or draw
26%
FC Inter Wanica or Robin Hood
85%
Draw or Robin Hood
89%

Winning margin

FC Inter Wanica wins by 2+
4%
Robin Hood wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

FC Inter Wanica 1+ goals
65%
FC Inter Wanica 2+ goals
28%
FC Inter Wanica 3+ goals
9%
Robin Hood 1+ goals
94%
Robin Hood 2+ goals
77%
Robin Hood 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

FC Inter Wanica (draw refunded)
13%
Robin Hood (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Inter Wanica at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.67 · 57 matches

Robin Hood away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.90 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Inter Wanica attack 1.19 + Robin Hood defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.04

Robin Hood attack 3.05 + FC Inter Wanica defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

FC Inter Wanica scores more
11%
level
15%
Robin Hood scores more
74%

Robin Hood at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: FC Inter Wanica 0–10 Robin Hood

Robin Hood beat FC Inter Wanica 10-0 in Eerste Divisie on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.