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FC Inter Wanica vs PVV — Eerste Divisie 2019

FC Inter Wanica
FC Inter Wanica
FT
1 – 2
PVV
PVV
3/11/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 9Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

FC Inter Wanica23%
×Draw21%
PVV57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Inter Wanica
1.28
PVV
2.13

PVV creates 66% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 48 away

creates per match

FC Inter Wanica
1.19
PVV
1.60

allows per match

FC Inter Wanica
2.67
PVV
1.38

finishing

FC Inter Wanica+0.00on par
PVV+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Inter Wanica ↓

PVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FC Inter Wanica or draw
43%
FC Inter Wanica or PVV
79%
Draw or PVV
77%

Winning margin

FC Inter Wanica wins by 2+
9%
PVV wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

FC Inter Wanica 1+ goals
72%
FC Inter Wanica 2+ goals
37%
FC Inter Wanica 3+ goals
14%
PVV 1+ goals
88%
PVV 2+ goals
63%
PVV 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

FC Inter Wanica (draw refunded)
29%
PVV (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Inter Wanica at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.67 · 57 matches

PVV away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Inter Wanica attack 1.19 + PVV defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

PVV attack 1.60 + FC Inter Wanica defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FC Inter Wanica scores more
23%
level
21%
PVV scores more
57%

PVV at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "PVV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: FC Inter Wanica 1–2 PVV

PVV beat FC Inter Wanica 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.