FC Inter Wanica 1–2 Notch: Result & Stats

FC Inter Wanica

FT

1 – 2

Notch

4/23/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 13Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

FC Inter Wanica23%

×Draw20%

Notch57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Inter WanicaExpected goals in this matchNotch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.21

FC Inter Wanica

1.33

Notch

2.21

Notch creates 66% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 58 away

1.19

creates per match

1.76

2.67

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

FC Inter Wanica

1.19

Notch

1.76

allows per match

FC Inter Wanica

2.67

Notch

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Inter Wanica+0.00on par

Notch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Inter Wanica ↓

Notch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

FC Inter Wanica or draw

43%

FC Inter Wanica or Notch

80%

Draw or Notch

77%

Winning margin

FC Inter Wanica wins by 2+

9%

Notch wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

FC Inter Wanica 1+ goals

74%

FC Inter Wanica 2+ goals

38%

FC Inter Wanica 3+ goals

15%

Notch 1+ goals

89%

Notch 2+ goals

65%

Notch 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

FC Inter Wanica (draw refunded)

28%

Notch (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Inter Wanica at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.67 · 57 matches

Notch away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.48 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Inter Wanica attack 1.19 + Notch defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Notch attack 1.76 + FC Inter Wanica defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FC Inter Wanica scores more

23%

level

20%

Notch scores more

57%

Notch at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Notch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff