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FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk — Premier League 2018

FC Gomel
FC Gomel
Preview
15:00
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
10/10/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Centralnyj Stadion
Big match
48%
ML Vitebsk
model favours
26%25%48%

Top-of-the-table clash — FC Gomel 4 vs ML Vitebsk 2

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

FC Gomel26%
×Draw25%
ML Vitebsk48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gomel
1.07
ML Vitebsk
1.55

ML Vitebsk creates 45% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 24 away

creates per match

FC Gomel
1.39
ML Vitebsk
1.92

allows per match

FC Gomel
1.19
ML Vitebsk
0.75

finishing

FC Gomel+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gomel ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Gomel or draw
52%
FC Gomel or ML Vitebsk
75%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
74%

Winning margin

FC Gomel wins by 2+
10%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

FC Gomel 1+ goals
66%
FC Gomel 2+ goals
29%
FC Gomel 3+ goals
9%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
79%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
46%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FC Gomel (draw refunded)
35%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gomel at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gomel attack 1.39 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.07

ML Vitebsk attack 1.92 + FC Gomel defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Gomel scores more
26%
level
25%
ML Vitebsk scores more
48%

ML Vitebsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 36% of ML Vitebsk’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Gomel
DWDDW
Vitebsk
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Gomel face ML Vitebsk (Premier League)

Premier League returns with FC Gomel hosting ML Vitebsk. Match starts October 10, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Gomel host ML Vitebsk at Centralnyj Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.