FC Fredericia 1–0 Kolding IF: Result & Stats

FC Fredericia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kolding IF

11/5/2023

1. Division · Round 15Monjasa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

FC Fredericia43%

×Draw25%

Kolding IF32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC FredericiaExpected goals in this matchKolding IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.25

FC Fredericia

1.50

Kolding IF

1.25

FC Fredericia creates 20% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 81 away

1.64

creates per match

1.16

1.35

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

FC Fredericia

1.64

Kolding IF

1.16

allows per match

FC Fredericia

1.35

Kolding IF

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Fredericia+0.00on par

Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fredericia ↓

Kolding IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FC Fredericia or draw

68%

FC Fredericia or Kolding IF

75%

Draw or Kolding IF

57%

Winning margin

FC Fredericia wins by 2+

21%

Kolding IF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Fredericia 1+ goals

78%

FC Fredericia 2+ goals

44%

FC Fredericia 3+ goals

19%

Kolding IF 1+ goals

71%

Kolding IF 2+ goals

36%

Kolding IF 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)

58%

Kolding IF (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fredericia at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.35 · 113 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fredericia attack 1.64 + Kolding IF defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kolding IF attack 1.16 + FC Fredericia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Fredericia scores more

43%

level

25%

Kolding IF scores more

32%

FC Fredericia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Fredericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff