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FC Fredericia vs HB Koge — 1. Division 2018

FC Fredericia
FC Fredericia
Preview
14:00
HB Koge
HB Koge
7/25/20261. Division1. Division · Round 1Monjasa Park
Big match
46%
FC Fredericia
model favours
46%24%30%

Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

FC Fredericia46%
×Draw24%
HB Koge30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Fredericia
1.66
HB Koge
1.29

FC Fredericia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 129 away

creates per match

FC Fredericia
1.64
HB Koge
1.22

allows per match

FC Fredericia
1.35
HB Koge
1.68

finishing

FC Fredericia+0.00on par
HB Koge+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fredericia ↓

HB Koge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Fredericia or draw
70%
FC Fredericia or HB Koge
76%
Draw or HB Koge
54%

Winning margin

FC Fredericia wins by 2+
24%
HB Koge wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Fredericia 1+ goals
81%
FC Fredericia 2+ goals
49%
FC Fredericia 3+ goals
23%
HB Koge 1+ goals
72%
HB Koge 2+ goals
37%
HB Koge 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)
61%
HB Koge (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fredericia at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.35 · 113 matches

HB Koge away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.68 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fredericia attack 1.64 + HB Koge defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.66

HB Koge attack 1.22 + FC Fredericia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Fredericia scores more
46%
level
24%
HB Koge scores more
30%

FC Fredericia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Fredericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Fredericia
WWWWW
Koge
LWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Fredericia vs HB Koge — Match Preview

FC Fredericia face HB Koge on July 25, 2026 in this 1. Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC Fredericia host HB Koge at Monjasa Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.