Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Fleury 91 W vs Stade de Reims W — Feminine Division 1 2018

FC Fleury 91 W
FC Fleury 91 W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Stade de Reims W
Stade de Reims W
2/27/2021Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 15Terrain Walter Felder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

FC Fleury 91 W48%
×Draw24%
Stade de Reims W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Fleury 91 W
1.75
Stade de Reims W
1.28

FC Fleury 91 W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 65 away

creates per match

FC Fleury 91 W
1.56
Stade de Reims W
1.31

allows per match

FC Fleury 91 W
1.25
Stade de Reims W
1.95

finishing

FC Fleury 91 W+0.00on par
Stade de Reims W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fleury 91 W ↓

Stade de Reims W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Fleury 91 W or draw
72%
FC Fleury 91 W or Stade de Reims W
76%
Draw or Stade de Reims W
52%

Winning margin

FC Fleury 91 W wins by 2+
26%
Stade de Reims W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Fleury 91 W 1+ goals
83%
FC Fleury 91 W 2+ goals
52%
FC Fleury 91 W 3+ goals
25%
Stade de Reims W 1+ goals
72%
Stade de Reims W 2+ goals
37%
Stade de Reims W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Fleury 91 W (draw refunded)
63%
Stade de Reims W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fleury 91 W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 85 matches

Stade de Reims W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fleury 91 W attack 1.56 + Stade de Reims W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.75

Stade de Reims W attack 1.31 + FC Fleury 91 W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Fleury 91 W scores more
48%
level
24%
Stade de Reims W scores more
28%

FC Fleury 91 W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Fleury 91 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Fleury 91 W vs Stade de Reims W

Stade de Reims W beat FC Fleury 91 W 2-1 in Feminine Division 1 on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Terrain Walter Felder in Fleury Merogis.