FC Fleury 91 W 0–0 Soyaux W: Result & Stats

FC Fleury 91 W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Soyaux W

12/12/2020

Feminine Division 1 · Round 11Terrain Walter Felder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

FC Fleury 91 W58%

×Draw22%

Soyaux W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Fleury 91 WExpected goals in this matchSoyaux W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.00

FC Fleury 91 W

1.88

Soyaux W

1.00

FC Fleury 91 W creates 88% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 54 away

1.56

creates per match

0.76

1.25

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

FC Fleury 91 W

1.56

Soyaux W

0.76

allows per match

FC Fleury 91 W

1.25

Soyaux W

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Fleury 91 W+0.00on par

Soyaux W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fleury 91 W ↓

Soyaux W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Fleury 91 W or draw

80%

FC Fleury 91 W or Soyaux W

78%

Draw or Soyaux W

42%

Winning margin

FC Fleury 91 W wins by 2+

34%

Soyaux W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FC Fleury 91 W 1+ goals

85%

FC Fleury 91 W 2+ goals

56%

FC Fleury 91 W 3+ goals

29%

Soyaux W 1+ goals

63%

Soyaux W 2+ goals

26%

Soyaux W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FC Fleury 91 W (draw refunded)

74%

Soyaux W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fleury 91 W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 85 matches

Soyaux W away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.19 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fleury 91 W attack 1.56 + Soyaux W defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.88

Soyaux W attack 0.76 + FC Fleury 91 W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Fleury 91 W scores more

58%

level

22%

Soyaux W scores more

20%

FC Fleury 91 W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Fleury 91 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff