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FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
2/14/2020Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 26Jan Louwers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

FC Eindhoven46%
×Draw23%
Jong PSV U2131%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Eindhoven
1.85
Jong PSV U21
1.48

FC Eindhoven creates 25% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 149 away

creates per match

FC Eindhoven
1.64
Jong PSV U21
1.52

allows per match

FC Eindhoven
1.45
Jong PSV U21
2.06

finishing

FC Eindhoven+0.00on par
Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Eindhoven ↓

Jong PSV U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FC Eindhoven or draw
69%
FC Eindhoven or Jong PSV U21
77%
Draw or Jong PSV U21
54%

Winning margin

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
25%
Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
84%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
55%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
28%
Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
77%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
43%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
60%
Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Eindhoven at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 148 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Eindhoven attack 1.64 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.85

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Eindhoven scores more
46%
level
23%
Jong PSV U21 scores more
31%

FC Eindhoven at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21

FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on February 14, 2020.

The match was played at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eindhoven.