Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Differdange 03 vs UNA Strassen — National Division 2018

FC Differdange 03
FC Differdange 03
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen
3/10/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 20Stade Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

FC Differdange 0351%
×Draw23%
UNA Strassen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Differdange 03
1.77
UNA Strassen
1.19

FC Differdange 03 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 112 away

creates per match

FC Differdange 03
2.14
UNA Strassen
1.43

allows per match

FC Differdange 03
0.95
UNA Strassen
1.41

finishing

FC Differdange 03+0.00on par
UNA Strassen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Differdange 03 ↓

UNA Strassen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Differdange 03 or draw
74%
FC Differdange 03 or UNA Strassen
77%
Draw or UNA Strassen
49%

Winning margin

FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+
28%
UNA Strassen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Differdange 03 1+ goals
83%
FC Differdange 03 2+ goals
53%
FC Differdange 03 3+ goals
26%
UNA Strassen 1+ goals
70%
UNA Strassen 2+ goals
33%
UNA Strassen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)
66%
UNA Strassen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Differdange 03 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 111 matches

UNA Strassen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Differdange 03 attack 2.14 + UNA Strassen defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

UNA Strassen attack 1.43 + FC Differdange 03 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Differdange 03 scores more
51%
level
23%
UNA Strassen scores more
26%

FC Differdange 03 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: FC Differdange 03 2–0 UNA Strassen

FC Differdange 03 beat UNA Strassen 2-0 in National Division on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Parc des Sports in Differdange.