FC Dallas 1–3 Vancouver Whitecaps: Result & Stats

FC Dallas

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Vancouver Whitecaps

3/17/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 6Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

FC Dallas34%

×Draw25%

Vancouver Whitecaps41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC DallasExpected goals in this matchVancouver Whitecaps

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.49

FC Dallas

1.33

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.49

Vancouver Whitecaps creates 12% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 21 away

1.50

creates per match

1.74

1.24

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

FC Dallas

1.50

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.74

allows per match

FC Dallas

1.24

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.17

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

FC Dallas+0.42scores more

Vancouver Whitecaps+0.26scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Dallas ↓

Vancouver Whitecaps →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Dallas or draw

59%

FC Dallas or Vancouver Whitecaps

75%

Draw or Vancouver Whitecaps

66%

Winning margin

FC Dallas wins by 2+

15%

Vancouver Whitecaps wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FC Dallas 1+ goals

74%

FC Dallas 2+ goals

38%

FC Dallas 3+ goals

15%

Vancouver Whitecaps 1+ goals

77%

Vancouver Whitecaps 2+ goals

44%

Vancouver Whitecaps 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FC Dallas (draw refunded)

45%

Vancouver Whitecaps (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Dallas at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 24 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.17 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Dallas attack 1.50 + Vancouver Whitecaps defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Vancouver Whitecaps attack 1.74 + FC Dallas defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Dallas scores more

34%

level

25%

Vancouver Whitecaps scores more

41%

Vancouver Whitecaps at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff