FC Dallas 3–1 Seattle Sounders: Result & Stats

FC Dallas

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Seattle Sounders

11/5/2023

Major League Soccer · MLS Cup - Round 1Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

FC Dallas38%

×Draw26%

Seattle Sounders37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC DallasExpected goals in this matchSeattle Sounders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.36

FC Dallas

1.38

Seattle Sounders

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 16 away

1.50

creates per match

1.49

1.24

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

FC Dallas

1.50

Seattle Sounders

1.49

allows per match

FC Dallas

1.24

Seattle Sounders

1.26

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

FC Dallas+0.42scores more

Seattle Sounders-0.43scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Dallas ↓

Seattle Sounders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FC Dallas or draw

63%

FC Dallas or Seattle Sounders

74%

Draw or Seattle Sounders

62%

Winning margin

FC Dallas wins by 2+

17%

Seattle Sounders wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC Dallas 1+ goals

75%

FC Dallas 2+ goals

40%

FC Dallas 3+ goals

16%

Seattle Sounders 1+ goals

74%

Seattle Sounders 2+ goals

39%

Seattle Sounders 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Dallas (draw refunded)

51%

Seattle Sounders (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Dallas at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 24 matches

Seattle Sounders away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.26 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Dallas attack 1.50 + Seattle Sounders defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Seattle Sounders attack 1.49 + FC Dallas defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Dallas scores more

38%

level

26%

Seattle Sounders scores more

37%

FC Dallas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Dallas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff