FC Dallas 2–1 Portland Timbers: Result & Stats

FC Dallas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Portland Timbers

Reto Ziegler 60' (pen)

Jesús Ferreira 9'

Cristhian Paredes 67'

4/14/2019

Major League Soccer · Round 8Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

FC Dallas47%

×Draw24%

Portland Timbers29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC DallasExpected goals in this matchPortland Timbers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.25

FC Dallas

1.66

Portland Timbers

1.25

FC Dallas creates 33% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 38 away

1.45

creates per match

1.20

1.31

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

FC Dallas

1.45

Portland Timbers

1.20

allows per match

FC Dallas

1.31

Portland Timbers

1.86

+0.55scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

FC Dallas+0.55scores more

Portland Timbers+0.06on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Dallas ↓

Portland Timbers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Dallas or draw

71%

FC Dallas or Portland Timbers

76%

Draw or Portland Timbers

53%

Winning margin

FC Dallas wins by 2+

25%

Portland Timbers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Dallas 1+ goals

81%

FC Dallas 2+ goals

49%

FC Dallas 3+ goals

23%

Portland Timbers 1+ goals

71%

Portland Timbers 2+ goals

36%

Portland Timbers 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Dallas (draw refunded)

62%

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Dallas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 36 matches

Portland Timbers away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.86 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Dallas attack 1.45 + Portland Timbers defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.66

Portland Timbers attack 1.20 + FC Dallas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Dallas scores more

47%

level

24%

Portland Timbers scores more

29%

FC Dallas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Dallas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Sebastian Blanco

Portland Timbers · M

8.0

Match Events

9'

Jesús Ferreira

51'

Diego Chará

60'

Reto ZieglerPenalty

65'

Paxton Pomykal

67'

Cristhian Paredes↳ Sebastian Blanco

70'

Diego Valeri← Cristhian Paredes

70'

Dairon Asprilla← Julio Cascante

72'

Hárold Mosquera← Pablo Aránguiz

78'

Jacori Hayes← Edwin Cerrillo

87'

Bressan← Jesús Ferreira

87'

Tomás Conechny← Andres Flores

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCPortland

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots13

5Corners3

18Fouls20

Shots

13Total Shots13

5On Target6

6Off Target3

2Blocked4

9Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

478Total Passes427

385Accurate Passes335

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls20

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0