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FC Copenhagen vs Brondby — Superliga 2018

FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brondby
Brondby
11/12/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 15Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

FC Copenhagen47%
×Draw24%
Brondby29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Copenhagen
1.69
Brondby
1.28

FC Copenhagen creates 32% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 132 away

creates per match

FC Copenhagen
2.05
Brondby
1.54

allows per match

FC Copenhagen
1.02
Brondby
1.33

finishing

FC Copenhagen+0.00on par
Brondby+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

Brondby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw
71%
FC Copenhagen or Brondby
76%
Draw or Brondby
53%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
25%
Brondby wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
82%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
50%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
24%
Brondby 1+ goals
72%
Brondby 2+ goals
37%
Brondby 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
62%
Brondby (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.02 · 133 matches

Brondby away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.33 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 2.05 + Brondby defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.69

Brondby attack 1.54 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more
47%
level
24%
Brondby scores more
29%

FC Copenhagen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Copenhagen vs Brondby

FC Copenhagen and Brondby drew 0-0 in Superliga on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Parken in København.