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FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union — Major League Soccer 2026

FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnatiadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union
11/26/2023Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · MLS Cup - Conference Semi-finalsTQL Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

FC Cincinnati40%
×Draw24%
Philadelphia Union36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cincinnati
1.58
Philadelphia Union
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

FC Cincinnati
1.68
Philadelphia Union
1.46

allows per match

FC Cincinnati
1.52
Philadelphia Union
1.49

finishing

FC Cincinnati+0.16scores more
Philadelphia Union+0.01on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cincinnati ↓

Philadelphia Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Cincinnati or draw
64%
FC Cincinnati or Philadelphia Union
76%
Draw or Philadelphia Union
60%

Winning margin

FC Cincinnati wins by 2+
20%
Philadelphia Union wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Cincinnati 1+ goals
79%
FC Cincinnati 2+ goals
47%
FC Cincinnati 3+ goals
21%
Philadelphia Union 1+ goals
77%
Philadelphia Union 2+ goals
44%
Philadelphia Union 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)
53%
Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cincinnati at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.52 · 19 matches

Philadelphia Union away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.49 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cincinnati attack 1.68 + Philadelphia Union defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.58

Philadelphia Union attack 1.46 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Cincinnati scores more
40%
level
24%
Philadelphia Union scores more
36%

FC Cincinnati at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Cincinnati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union

FC Cincinnati beat Philadelphia Union 1-0 in Major League Soccer on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio.