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FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew — Major League Soccer 2026

FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
AET
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew
12/2/2023Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · MLS Cup - Conference FinalsTQL Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

FC Cincinnati41%
×Draw25%
Columbus Crew34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cincinnati
1.54
Columbus Crew
1.39

FC Cincinnati creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

creates per match

FC Cincinnati
1.68
Columbus Crew
1.26

allows per match

FC Cincinnati
1.52
Columbus Crew
1.40

finishing

FC Cincinnati+0.16scores more
Columbus Crew+0.30scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cincinnati ↓

Columbus Crew →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Cincinnati or draw
66%
FC Cincinnati or Columbus Crew
75%
Draw or Columbus Crew
59%

Winning margin

FC Cincinnati wins by 2+
20%
Columbus Crew wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Cincinnati 1+ goals
79%
FC Cincinnati 2+ goals
45%
FC Cincinnati 3+ goals
20%
Columbus Crew 1+ goals
75%
Columbus Crew 2+ goals
40%
Columbus Crew 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)
54%
Columbus Crew (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cincinnati at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.52 · 19 matches

Columbus Crew away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.40 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cincinnati attack 1.68 + Columbus Crew defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.54

Columbus Crew attack 1.26 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Cincinnati scores more
41%
level
25%
Columbus Crew scores more
34%

FC Cincinnati at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Cincinnati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: FC Cincinnati 2–2 Columbus Crew

FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew drew 2-2 in Major League Soccer on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio.