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FC Cincinnati II vs Philadelphia Union II — MLS Next Pro 2022

FC Cincinnati II
FC Cincinnati II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
6/4/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 15Northern Kentucky University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FC Cincinnati II34%
×Draw23%
Philadelphia Union II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cincinnati II
1.57
Philadelphia Union II
1.81

Philadelphia Union II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 56 away

creates per match

FC Cincinnati II
1.53
Philadelphia Union II
1.95

allows per match

FC Cincinnati II
1.67
Philadelphia Union II
1.61

finishing

FC Cincinnati II+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cincinnati II ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FC Cincinnati II or draw
56%
FC Cincinnati II or Philadelphia Union II
77%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
66%

Winning margin

FC Cincinnati II wins by 2+
16%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FC Cincinnati II 1+ goals
79%
FC Cincinnati II 2+ goals
46%
FC Cincinnati II 3+ goals
21%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
84%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
54%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

FC Cincinnati II (draw refunded)
44%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cincinnati II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 55 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cincinnati II attack 1.53 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.57

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.95 + FC Cincinnati II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Cincinnati II scores more
34%
level
23%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
44%

Philadelphia Union II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: FC Cincinnati II 2–1 Philadelphia Union II

FC Cincinnati II beat Philadelphia Union II 2-1 in MLS Next Pro on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Northern Kentucky University Stadium in Cincinnati, Kentucky.