FC Cincinnati II 1–5 Chicago Fire II

FC Cincinnati II

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Chicago Fire II

8/10/2023

MLS Next Pro · Round 29Northern Kentucky University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

FC Cincinnati II42%

×Draw22%

Chicago Fire II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Cincinnati IIExpected goals in this matchChicago Fire II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.75

FC Cincinnati II

1.91

Chicago Fire II

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 45 away

1.53

creates per match

1.84

1.67

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

FC Cincinnati II

1.53

Chicago Fire II

1.84

allows per match

FC Cincinnati II

1.67

Chicago Fire II

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Cincinnati II+0.00on par

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cincinnati II ↓

Chicago Fire II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

FC Cincinnati II or draw

64%

FC Cincinnati II or Chicago Fire II

78%

Draw or Chicago Fire II

58%

Winning margin

FC Cincinnati II wins by 2+

23%

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FC Cincinnati II 1+ goals

85%

FC Cincinnati II 2+ goals

57%

FC Cincinnati II 3+ goals

30%

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals

83%

Chicago Fire II 2+ goals

52%

Chicago Fire II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

FC Cincinnati II (draw refunded)

54%

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cincinnati II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 55 matches

Chicago Fire II away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.29 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cincinnati II attack 1.53 + Chicago Fire II defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.91

Chicago Fire II attack 1.84 + FC Cincinnati II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Cincinnati II scores more

42%

level

22%

Chicago Fire II scores more

36%

FC Cincinnati II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Cincinnati II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff