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FC Cartagena vs Teruel — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
Preview
16:00
Teruel
Teruel
3/7/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Estadio Municipal Cartagonova
48%
FC Cartagena
model favours
48%29%23%
1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Cartagena48%
×Draw29%
Teruel23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cartagena
1.31
Teruel
0.81

FC Cartagena creates 62% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

FC Cartagena
1.37
Teruel
0.79

allows per match

FC Cartagena
0.84
Teruel
1.26

finishing

FC Cartagena+0.00on par
Teruel+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cartagena ↓

Teruel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FC Cartagena or draw
77%
FC Cartagena or Teruel
71%
Draw or Teruel
52%

Winning margin

FC Cartagena wins by 2+
23%
Teruel wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Cartagena 1+ goals
73%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
38%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
14%
Teruel 1+ goals
56%
Teruel 2+ goals
19%
Teruel 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
68%
Teruel (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cartagena at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Teruel away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cartagena attack 1.37 + Teruel defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Teruel attack 0.79 + FC Cartagena defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Cartagena scores more
48%
level
29%
Teruel scores more
23%

FC Cartagena at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cartagena
DLWDW
Teruel
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Cartagena host Teruel

March 7, 2027: FC Cartagena take on Teruel in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Cartagena host Teruel at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.