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FC Cartagena vs Hércules — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
Preview
16:00
Hércules
Hércules
12/6/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Estadio Municipal Cartagonova
50%
FC Cartagena
model favours
50%27%23%

Hércules raise their game against the top half — 37% wins vs the upper half, only 34% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Cartagena50%
×Draw27%
Hércules23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cartagena
1.45
Hércules
0.90

FC Cartagena creates 61% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

FC Cartagena
1.37
Hércules
0.95

allows per match

FC Cartagena
0.84
Hércules
1.53

finishing

FC Cartagena+0.00on par
Hércules+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cartagena ↓

Hércules →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Cartagena or draw
77%
FC Cartagena or Hércules
73%
Draw or Hércules
50%

Winning margin

FC Cartagena wins by 2+
25%
Hércules wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Cartagena 1+ goals
77%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
42%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
18%
Hércules 1+ goals
59%
Hércules 2+ goals
23%
Hércules 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
68%
Hércules (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cartagena at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Hércules away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cartagena attack 1.37 + Hércules defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Hércules attack 0.95 + FC Cartagena defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Cartagena scores more
50%
level
27%
Hércules scores more
23%

FC Cartagena at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cartagena
DLWDW
Hércules
DWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Cartagena vs Hércules — Match Preview

FC Cartagena face Hércules on December 6, 2026 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC Cartagena host Hércules at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.