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FC Cartagena vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
Preview
16:00
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
12/13/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Estadio Municipal Cartagonova
43%
FC Cartagena
model favours
43%28%29%
1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Cartagena43%
×Draw28%
Atlético Madrid II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cartagena
1.31
Atlético Madrid II
1.01

FC Cartagena creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

FC Cartagena
1.37
Atlético Madrid II
1.19

allows per match

FC Cartagena
0.84
Atlético Madrid II
1.26

finishing

FC Cartagena+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cartagena ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Cartagena or draw
71%
FC Cartagena or Atlético Madrid II
72%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
57%

Winning margin

FC Cartagena wins by 2+
20%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Cartagena 1+ goals
73%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
38%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
27%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
60%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cartagena at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cartagena attack 1.37 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.19 + FC Cartagena defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Cartagena scores more
43%
level
28%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
29%

FC Cartagena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cartagena
DLWDW
II
LDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Cartagena host Atlético Madrid II

December 13, 2026: FC Cartagena take on Atlético Madrid II in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Cartagena host Atlético Madrid II at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.