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FC Cartagena vs Antequera — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
Preview
15:00
Antequera
Antequera
4/4/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Estadio Municipal Cartagonova
45%
FC Cartagena
model favours
45%28%27%
1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Cartagena45%
×Draw28%
Antequera27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cartagena
1.31
Antequera
0.95

FC Cartagena creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

FC Cartagena
1.37
Antequera
1.05

allows per match

FC Cartagena
0.84
Antequera
1.26

finishing

FC Cartagena+0.00on par
Antequera+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cartagena ↓

Antequera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Cartagena or draw
73%
FC Cartagena or Antequera
72%
Draw or Antequera
55%

Winning margin

FC Cartagena wins by 2+
21%
Antequera wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Cartagena 1+ goals
73%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
38%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
14%
Antequera 1+ goals
61%
Antequera 2+ goals
25%
Antequera 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
62%
Antequera (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cartagena at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Antequera away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cartagena attack 1.37 + Antequera defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Antequera attack 1.05 + FC Cartagena defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Cartagena scores more
45%
level
28%
Antequera scores more
27%

FC Cartagena at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cartagena
DLWDW
Antequera
WWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Cartagena face Antequera (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with FC Cartagena hosting Antequera. Match starts April 4, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Cartagena host Antequera at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.