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FC Cartagena vs Algeciras — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
Preview
15:00
Algeciras
Algeciras
5/2/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 35Estadio Municipal Cartagonova
47%
FC Cartagena
model favours
47%27%26%
1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Cartagena47%
×Draw27%
Algeciras26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cartagena
1.39
Algeciras
0.95

FC Cartagena creates 46% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

creates per match

FC Cartagena
1.37
Algeciras
1.05

allows per match

FC Cartagena
0.84
Algeciras
1.41

finishing

FC Cartagena+0.00on par
Algeciras+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cartagena ↓

Algeciras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Cartagena or draw
74%
FC Cartagena or Algeciras
73%
Draw or Algeciras
53%

Winning margin

FC Cartagena wins by 2+
23%
Algeciras wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Cartagena 1+ goals
75%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
40%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
16%
Algeciras 1+ goals
61%
Algeciras 2+ goals
25%
Algeciras 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
65%
Algeciras (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cartagena at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Algeciras away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cartagena attack 1.37 + Algeciras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Algeciras attack 1.05 + FC Cartagena defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Cartagena scores more
47%
level
27%
Algeciras scores more
26%

FC Cartagena at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cartagena
DLWDW
Algeciras
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Cartagena face Algeciras (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with FC Cartagena hosting Algeciras. Match starts May 2, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Cartagena host Algeciras at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.