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FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

FC Cajamarca
FC Cajamarca
Preview
21:00
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
10/28/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 14Estadio Heroes de San Ramon
50%
FC Cajamarca
model favours
50%23%27%

UTC Cajamarca score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FC Cajamarca50%
×Draw23%
UTC Cajamarca27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cajamarca
1.81
UTC Cajamarca
1.27

FC Cajamarca creates 43% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 144 away

creates per match

FC Cajamarca
2.00
UTC Cajamarca
0.91

allows per match

FC Cajamarca
1.63
UTC Cajamarca
1.63

finishing

FC Cajamarca+0.00on par
UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cajamarca ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Cajamarca or draw
73%
FC Cajamarca or UTC Cajamarca
77%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
50%

Winning margin

FC Cajamarca wins by 2+
28%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Cajamarca 1+ goals
84%
FC Cajamarca 2+ goals
54%
FC Cajamarca 3+ goals
27%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
72%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
36%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
65%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cajamarca at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cajamarca attack 2.00 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.81

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + FC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Cajamarca scores more
50%
level
23%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
27%

FC Cajamarca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cajamarca
LDDDW
Cajamarca
WWDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Cajamarca host UTC Cajamarca

October 28, 2026: FC Cajamarca take on UTC Cajamarca in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Cajamarca host UTC Cajamarca at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.