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FC Cajamarca vs Juan Pablo II College — Primera División 2026

FC Cajamarca
FC Cajamarca
Preview
18:00
Juan Pablo II College
Juan Pablo II College
7/17/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 1Estadio Heroes de San Ramon
59%
FC Cajamarca
model favours
59%20%21%
2–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FC Cajamarca59%
×Draw20%
Juan Pablo II College21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cajamarca
2.16
Juan Pablo II College
1.20

FC Cajamarca creates 80% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 26 away

creates per match

FC Cajamarca
2.00
Juan Pablo II College
0.77

allows per match

FC Cajamarca
1.63
Juan Pablo II College
2.31

finishing

FC Cajamarca+0.00on par
Juan Pablo II College+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cajamarca ↓

Juan Pablo II College →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FC Cajamarca or draw
79%
FC Cajamarca or Juan Pablo II College
80%
Draw or Juan Pablo II College
41%

Winning margin

FC Cajamarca wins by 2+
36%
Juan Pablo II College wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Cajamarca 1+ goals
88%
FC Cajamarca 2+ goals
63%
FC Cajamarca 3+ goals
36%
Juan Pablo II College 1+ goals
70%
Juan Pablo II College 2+ goals
34%
Juan Pablo II College 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
74%
Juan Pablo II College (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cajamarca at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Juan Pablo II College away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cajamarca attack 2.00 + Juan Pablo II College defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.16

Juan Pablo II College attack 0.77 + FC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FC Cajamarca scores more
59%
level
20%
Juan Pablo II College scores more
21%

FC Cajamarca at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cajamarca
LDDDW
College
DDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Cajamarca host Juan Pablo II College

July 17, 2026: FC Cajamarca take on Juan Pablo II College in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Cajamarca host Juan Pablo II College at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.