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FC Botosani vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga I 2018

FC Botosani
FC Botosani
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
4/25/2022Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 6Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

FC Botosani43%
×Draw28%
U Craiova 194829%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Botosani
1.31
U Craiova 1948
1.02

FC Botosani creates 28% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 59 away

creates per match

FC Botosani
1.30
U Craiova 1948
1.02

allows per match

FC Botosani
1.03
U Craiova 1948
1.31

finishing

FC Botosani+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Botosani ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Botosani or draw
71%
FC Botosani or U Craiova 1948
72%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
57%

Winning margin

FC Botosani wins by 2+
20%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Botosani 1+ goals
73%
FC Botosani 2+ goals
38%
FC Botosani 3+ goals
14%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
64%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
27%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Botosani (draw refunded)
60%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Botosani at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 156 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Botosani attack 1.30 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.02 + FC Botosani defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Botosani scores more
43%
level
28%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
29%

FC Botosani at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Botosani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Botosani vs U Craiova 1948

FC Botosani beat U Craiova 1948 2-1 in Liga I on April 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Botoşani.