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FC Botosani vs FCSB — Liga I 2026

FC Botosani
FC Botosani
Preview
17:00
FCSB
FCSB
12/19/2026Liga ILiga I · Round 20Stadionul Municipal
Big match
38%
FCSB
model favours
34%27%38%

FCSB win just 14% of their away games

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 155+ matches

FC Botosani34%
×Draw27%
FCSB38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Botosani
1.19
FCSB
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 156 home / 155 away

creates per match

FC Botosani
1.30
FCSB
1.51

allows per match

FC Botosani
1.03
FCSB
1.07

finishing

FC Botosani+0.00on par
FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Botosani ↓

FCSB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Botosani or draw
62%
FC Botosani or FCSB
73%
Draw or FCSB
66%

Winning margin

FC Botosani wins by 2+
14%
FCSB wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Botosani 1+ goals
70%
FC Botosani 2+ goals
33%
FC Botosani 3+ goals
12%
FCSB 1+ goals
72%
FCSB 2+ goals
36%
FCSB 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Botosani (draw refunded)
47%
FCSB (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Botosani at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 156 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.07 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Botosani attack 1.30 + FCSB defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

FCSB attack 1.51 + FC Botosani defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Botosani scores more
34%
level
27%
FCSB scores more
38%

FCSB at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Even after scoring first, FCSB win only 46%
  • Both teams score in 72% of FCSB’s matches
  • 68% of FCSB’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
FC Botosani
Balanced
FCSB
Balanced
50%Possession52%
74%Pass accuracy80%
10.7Shots10.0
1.47xGBiggest gap1.76
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FC BotosaniFCSB

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
FC Botosani
1
Draws
6
FCSB
Avg goals: 3.4BTTS: 70%
3–33–21–23–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Botosani
DDLL
FCSB
WLDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Botosani host FCSB

December 19, 2026: FC Botosani take on FCSB in Liga I. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Botosani host FCSB at Stadionul Municipal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.